It took three months to reach the first 100,000 cases of COVID-19 but only 12 days to double that, to reach over 200,000, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday.
Shared Reading: "Coronavirus deaths: What we don't know"
The drastic measures taken in the UK to tackle coronavirus have been justified because of the need to save lives.
Modelling by Imperial College London – used to inform government – suggests 500,000 could die if we do nothing.
Even the government’s previous strategy to slow the spread was likely to lead to 250,000 deaths, the research showed.
The warnings prompted ministers to announce on Monday the most draconian crackdown on freedom in peacetime with the public told not to go to pubs, clubs or theatres, and to work from home if possible.
The move has hit the economy, putting jobs at risk and prompting schools to be closed and exams cancelled.
No other option – experts
Professor Neil Ferguson, one of the lead academics involved in the modelling, told the BBC’s Today Programme this week there was “no option” if 250,000 lives were not to be risked.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said in an appearance before the Health Select Committee, that the hope was to keep the death toll below 20,000 by suppressing the virus.
That would still be worse than those killed by flu, he said, giving a number of 8,000 per year.
He said limiting deaths to 20,000 would be “horrible” but still represented a “good outcome” given where we are.
Would these people be dying anyway?
The figures for coronavirus are eye-watering. But what is not clear – because the modellers did not map this – is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus.
Of course, this will never truly be known until the pandemic is over, which is why modelling is very difficult and needs caveats.
But given that the old and frail are the most vulnerable, would these people be dying anyway?
Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales: factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure tops 600,000.
The coronavirus deaths will not be on top of this. Many would be within this “normal” number of expected deaths. In short, they would have died anyway.
It was a point conceded by Sir Patrick at a press conference on Thursday when he said there would be “some overlap” between coronavirus deaths and expected deaths – he just did not know how much of an overlap.
The flu comparison
In contrast, the figure he gave for flu deaths to MPs – 8,000 – is different. It is actually the number of deaths over and above what you would expect to happen in any given year.
Many more die with flu, but the figure gives you an indication of how many more die because of flu, whereas the 20,000, 250,000 and 500,000 figures for coronavirus are simply the number of deaths linked to coronavirus.
The testing which has been done in many countries means we know when a patient dies with the virus inside their body. What it does not tell us is to what extent coronavirus contributed to the death.
Why better intelligence is needed
There are, of course, other factors at play here. Left unchecked, the deaths would come very quickly.
The 500,000 deaths could all occur in the UK by August, the modellers said.
This in itself would overwhelm the health service – if they were right – putting even more lives at risk, because care would not be available for others.
But there is certainly evidence to suggest the modellers have underestimated the ability of the NHS to increase intensive care capacity.
- A SIMPLE GUIDE: What are the symptoms?
- GETTING READY: How prepared is the UK?
- MAPS AND CHARTS: Visual guide to the outbreak
- PUBLIC TRANSPORT: What’s the risk?
Coronavirus by the Numbers: U.S. confirmed cases for March 21st, 2020
Fascinating Simulator that shows how quickly coronavirus can spread.
A friend shared this article, which features a couple of simulations that show how quickly the coronavirus can spread and emphasizes the importance of social distancing during this time.
]https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Story of the Day for Saturday, March 21st
Shared viewing: 60 days of coronavirus in the US – in 60 seconds
Coronavirus by the Numbers – World Stats for Saturday, A.M. for March 21st
Daily Readings for Saturday, March 21st
Meditation for the Day
All is fundamentally well. That does not mean that all is well on the surface of things. But it does mean that God’s in His heaven and that He has a purpose for the world, which will eventually work out when enough human beings are willing to follow His way. “Wearing the world as a loose garment” means not being upset by the surface wrongness of things, but feeling deeply secure in the fundamental goodness and purpose in the universe.
Prayer for the Day
I pray that God may be with me in my journey through the world. I pray that I may know that God is planning that journey.
From Twenty-Four Hours a Day
Considering Commitment
Pay attention to your commitments.
While many of us fear committing, it’s good to weigh the cost of any commitment we are considering. We need to feel consistently positive that it’s an appropriate commitment for us.
Many of us have a history of jumping — leaping headfirst — into commitments without weighing the cost and the possible consequences of that particular commitment. When we get in, we find that we do not really want to commit and feel trapped.
Some of us may become afraid of losing out on a particular opportunity if we don’t commit. It is true that we will lose out on certain opportunities if we are unwilling to commit. We still need to weigh the commitment. We still need to become clear about whether that commitment seems right for us. If it isn’t, we need to be direct and honest with others and ourselves.
Be patient. Do some soul searching. Wait for a clear answer. We need to make our commitments not in urgency or panic but in quiet confidence that what we are committing to is right for us.
If something within says no, find the courage to trust that voice.
This is not our last chance. It is not the only opportunity we’ll ever have. Don’t panic. We don’t have to commit to what isn’t right for us, even if we try to tell ourselves it should be right for us and we should commit.
Often, we can trust our intuitive sense more than we can trust our intellect about commitments.
In the excitement of making a commitment and beginning, we may overlook the realities of the middle. That is what we need to consider.
We don’t have to commit out of urgency, impulsivity, or fear. We are entitled to ask, Will this be good for me? We are entitled to ask if this commitment feels right.
Today, God, guide me in making my commitments. Help me say yes to what is in my highest good, and no to what isn’t. I will give serious consideration before I commit myself to any activity or person. I will take the time to consider if the commitment is really what I want.
From The Language of Letting Go by Melody Beattie
Working from Home – Day Two – Friday, March 20th
My second day of working from home began early this morning, with a video meeting with our school superintendent. He shared the latest information on what the schools were doing in preparation for the upcoming weeks of at-home learning.
Another meeting was held early this afternoon with our grade level teachers from across the system. We were told about subject level meetings, as well as possible formats that our lessons might take.
I did get one communication from a parent whose child’s packet was missing her social studies and science assignments. I assured her that there would be online opportunities for her to have alternate assignments and that seemed satisfactory to the parent.
I also located several other resources that I’ll be able to utilize with the online learners over the coming weeks and have bookmarked those for easy future reference.
I also was able to correspond with a few students who had found their way back to Google classroom and was able to answer their questions and send them a friendly greeting. I even had one students who has taken it upon herself to do some research on the last topic we were covering in science and that brought a big smile to my face.
One last thing that I did today was work with the video recorder on my home computer. I think this will provide a more reliable way to share lessons once we’ve reached that part of the at-home journey. I am pretty sure I’ll be able to save those files to share with the students. I even made a demo video and the results were pretty good for a first-timer.
So day number two is completed and on Monday, it’s the real deal as we continue this journey that no one saw coming…and taking it one day at a time….and today has been a good one.
David Lee
Shared Reading: Coronavirus: Four members of New Jersey family die
Four people in the same family have died from coronavirus in the US state of New Jersey, with three more relatives in hospital.
Grace Fusco, 73, and six of her adult children fell ill after attending a large family gathering.
Nearly 20 other relatives are now self-quarantining and waiting to find out if they have also been infected.
The death toll across the US has continued to rise, as experts warn against any kind of social gathering.
‘Unbearable tragedy’
The four family members who died are Grace Fusco and her children Rita Fusco-Jackson, Carmine Fusco and Vincent Fusco.
Rita Fusco-Jackson, a Catholic school teacher, 55, died on Friday. She had no underlying health issues, according to state health commissioner Judith Persichilli.
New Jersey health officials said Ms Fusco-Jackson was the second person to die from Covid-19 in the state, and the first fatality had also recently attended a Fusco family gathering.
Carmine Fusco died on Wednesday, followed hours later by his mother, Grace Fusco.
According to the New York Times, Grace Fusco died without knowing that two of her children had already succumbed to the deadly respiratory illness sweeping the planet.
On Thursday, Vincent Fusco died in the same hospital where his mother had recently passed.
According to family member Paradiso Fodera, 19 family members who attended the same dinner are now self-isolating, and have waited nearly a week to learn the results of their virus tests.
“Why don’t the family members who are not hospitalised have the test results? This is a public health crisis,” Ms Fodera told CNN.
She continued: “Why should athletes and celebrities without symptoms be given priority over a family that has been decimated by this virus?”
“This is an unbearable tragedy for the family.”
- A SIMPLE GUIDE: What are the symptoms?
- YOUR THIRD HAND: How do you clean your smartphone?
- BORED KIDS: Should you let your children play with others?
- GETTING READY: How prepared is the US?
- DOING GOOD: Kind Canadians start ‘caremongering’ trend
A niece of Fusco-Jackson took to Facebook to grieve the sudden loss, NBC reported.
“My mom is one of 11, last Thursday I went to sleep having 10 aunts and uncles! Friday I woke up and found out I only had 9. Just a few minutes ago I found out I only have 8,” she wrote.
“Please hold your love ones close and cherish every second and minute you have together.”
‘Stay at home’
More than 200 people have now died from Covid-19 in the US, with over 15,000 known infections and cases in all 50 states.
More and more US states and cities have begun lockdown procedures in an effort to prevent the rampant virus from overwhelming hospitals.
Testing in the US has lagged behind other industrialised nations, leading to questions about the actual spread of the infection in North America.
David Lee 